CHAPTER 3. Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands
نویسنده
چکیده
Changes in some weather and climate extremes are attributable to human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. Human-induced warming has likely caused much of the average temperature increase in North America • over the past 50 years. This affects changes in temperature extremes. Heavy precipitation events averaged over North America have increased over the past 50 years, • consistent with the observed increases in atmospheric water vapor, which have been associated with human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. It is very likely that the human-induced increase in greenhouse gases has contributed to the increase • in sea surface temperatures in the hurricane formation regions. Over the past 50 years there has been a strong statistical connection between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Atlantic hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency). This evidence suggests a human contribution to recent hurricane activity. However, a confident assessment of human influence on hurricanes will require further studies using models and observations, with emphasis on distinguishing natural from human-induced changes in hurricane activity through their influence on factors such as historical sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric vertical stability
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CHAPTER 4. Measures To Improve Our Understanding of Weather and Climate Extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands
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